# Climate Scientist Raises Alarm Over Populism's Impact on Amazon
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Chapter 1: The Amazon Tipping Point
In February, a groundbreaking article in Nature ignited discussions within both the media and scientific circles. Titled "Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system," the study explored various elements leading to the deterioration of the Amazon Rainforest, including climate change, drought, diminishing rainfall, deforestation, wildfires, and "edge effects." The authors projected alarming trends, suggesting that by 2050, up to 47% of the Amazon may reach a critical "tipping point," transforming large areas into arid savannah and grassland rather than a thriving rainforest.
Carlos Nobre, a distinguished climate scientist and senior researcher at the Institute for Advanced Studies at the University of São Paulo, Brazil, has dedicated nearly 40 years to studying climate change in the Amazon. He earned his Ph.D. in meteorology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1983 and subsequently conducted pioneering research at the University of Maryland, focusing on the consequences of climate change and deforestation. Nobre is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, the International Science Council, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and he co-authored the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, which earned him and his colleagues the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.
In this interview, Nobre discusses his lifelong commitment to understanding climate change in the Amazon, his recent findings regarding the tipping point, and his hopes and concerns for the rainforest's future.
Quentin: I understand that you and your colleague, Thomas Lovejoy, were the first to use the term "Amazon tipping point." Is that accurate?
Nobre: Yes, I collaborated with the esteemed scientist Thomas Lovejoy, and we did refer to the term "tipping point" in our work. However, we've been discussing this concept for many years. Scientists have used the term for about two decades when referring to various tipping points worldwide. I was among the first to investigate the potential effects of deforestation and climate change on the Amazon. My initial paper on this topic was published in 1991, long before we explicitly called it a tipping point. At that time, I predicted that more than 50% of the Amazon could become a degraded open-canopy ecosystem. Over the past two decades, researchers have identified numerous tipping points, including the melting of permafrost and the loss of coral reefs. Currently, we recognize over 20 tipping points affecting the planet's climate.
Chapter 2: Insights from Recent Research
The first video titled "Climate Populism: The Anti-Elite Backlash Against the Green Transition" delves into the political dynamics surrounding climate action, particularly in the context of rising populism. It explores how these political shifts can influence environmental policies and the broader implications for climate change.
Quentin: Can you elaborate on the recent Nature paper, "Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system"? What new findings does it present?
Nobre: This study reinforces that we are perilously close to the Amazon tipping point. If deforestation, degradation, and global warming persist, we may exceed this tipping point by 2050—much sooner than previously thought.
Quentin: How imminent is the tipping point for the Amazon?
Nobre: The answer varies. If we achieve zero deforestation and mitigate global warming, we might only lose 10% of the Amazon. However, if current trends continue, we could see up to half the rainforest disappear by 2050. I'm deeply concerned about global warming. The year 2024 is likely to break temperature records. While El Niño may fade by mid-year, the oceans remain exceptionally warm, which could still lead to 2024 being the hottest year on record. Our research indicates that to avoid the tipping point, we must not exceed 1.5 degrees of global warming. However, we are on track to reach 2.5 degrees by 2050, which will inevitably trigger the tipping point.
Section 2.1: Consequences of the Tipping Point
Quentin: What implications does reaching the tipping point have for the Amazon Rainforest?
Nobre: Shortly after the Nature paper's release, we published another study in Scientific Reports. This research assumed we would cross the tipping point and examined the resultant climate impacts both within the Amazon and beyond. Deforestation will lead to reduced rainfall in the Amazon, diminishing "flying rivers" and significantly extending the dry season.
If the Amazon degrades, even by 50%, water transport across South America will decline, resulting in up to 30% less rainfall in regions south of the Amazon. This will also lead to more severe heat waves and increased temperatures. The consequences of losing the Amazon are dire: the forest could become a severely degraded open-canopy ecosystem with diminished water recycling.
Quentin: What are these "flying rivers" in the Amazon?
Nobre: "Flying rivers," also referred to as aerial rivers, play a critical role in the Amazon ecosystem. The rainforest is home to a dense population of trees—around 600 to 700 per hectare. Most of the Amazon's water is stored in the soil, with roots drawing moisture up to the leaves, where transpiration occurs. This process is vital for photosynthesis. The Amazon's dense root systems capture significant soil moisture, which then evaporates, forms clouds, and eventually returns as rain.
Studies dating back to the 1970s indicate that a single water vapor molecule from the Atlantic Ocean can recycle five to eight times before leaving the Amazon River Basin. Near the Atlantic coast, about 20% of rainfall is recycled by the trees, while in the western Amazon, this figure rises to 50%. This recycled moisture travels south, contributing significantly to rainfall across central and southern South America.
Section 2.2: Impacts Beyond the Amazon
Quentin: Do these flying rivers extend their influence far beyond the Amazon?
Nobre: Absolutely. South America has already experienced heat waves and droughts. Our study indicates that the loss of the forest could have global repercussions, affecting regions as far as southwestern Asia, North America, and even Antarctica.
Quentin: Do you maintain hope for the Amazon Rainforest?
Nobre: Yes, I remain optimistic. Recently, we saw a 50% reduction in deforestation across the Amazon, and this trend continued in January and February of this year. Brazil has initiated a plan to restore 240,000 square kilometers of rainforest, and other Amazonian nations like Colombia are pursuing similar restoration efforts.
However, even if all Amazonian countries achieved zero deforestation, the challenge of global warming remains. An alarming trend is the rise of populism globally. Many populist leaders, such as Argentina's president, Javier Milei, and Brazil's former president, Jair Bolsonaro, are climate change skeptics. If Trump is re-elected, his proposed policies could severely undermine global climate efforts, as he has previously increased emissions during his presidency.
Quentin: What actions are necessary to preserve the Amazon Rainforest?
Nobre: Large-scale restoration is essential. We must achieve zero deforestation and degradation. Currently, nearly two million square kilometers of forest are degraded. If we stop deforestation and restore one million square kilometers by 2050, we might avoid reaching the tipping point—provided global warming does not exceed 1.5 degrees. These goals are ambitious but achievable. My concern lies with the trajectory of global warming.
To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, we need a 50% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Unfortunately, we are not progressing in that direction.
Chapter 3: The Role of Populism in Climate Action
The second video, titled "Time to Wake Up: Harassment of Climate Scientists," addresses the challenges faced by climate scientists, particularly in the context of rising populism and political resistance to climate action. It underscores the urgency of protecting the scientific community to ensure continued research and advocacy for climate change.
In summary, the insights shared by Carlos Nobre highlight the critical interplay between climate change, political dynamics, and the future of the Amazon Rainforest. As we grapple with these challenges, it is imperative to take meaningful action to safeguard one of the world's most vital ecosystems.