# The Unpredictable Journey of Progress and Enrichment
Written on
Chapter 1: The Illusion of Inevitable Progress
It is common for people to recount historical events as if they were the result of an inevitable sequence of occurrences. However, in this chapter, Dr. McCloskey posits that the cultural transformations facilitating the Great Enrichment demand innovation, which, fundamentally, is unpredictable. This section marks the beginning of Part VI of her book, where she delves into the various elements that contributed to the eventual recognition of bourgeois virtues and the dignity of the average person.
The unforeseen outcomes of bourgeois freedom shaped the modern world, now characterized by significant enrichment. In 1700, no one had the rational foresight to believe that embracing broad-church doctrines and valuing bourgeois creativity would lead to a dramatic increase in real national income per capita by factors of 30 or 100. (p. 360) In essence, the shift in perspective regarding concepts like liberty, nobility, and rights motivated people to alter their behaviors—not with the intention of catalyzing the Great Enrichment.
Earlier in her book, McCloskey discusses the Great Chain of Being, a concept that dominated the Middle Ages and upheld the significance of hierarchy. While it is understandable that the emerging merchant class would gravitate toward new ideas that appreciate individual value, McCloskey highlights that even the elite began to question the legitimacy of nobility.
She references historian Jonathan Dewald, who notes the elite's introspection regarding their societal position:
"Seventeenth-century nobles [in France] became preoccupied with the nature of selfhood…and they came at the same time to doubt many of the ethical underpinnings of their society. They came, in other words, to see the isolated self as real, important, and complicated, and they correspondingly doubted the value, even the reality, of the social conventions that surrounded it." (p. 364)
The pursuit of betterment through trade—which ultimately leads to the Great Enrichment—requires the freedom to explore new ideas and allows those with innovative concepts to ascend, enabling others to adopt and adapt those ideas. A rigid hierarchy stifles this organic, chaotic process.
Innovative betterment is inherently unpredictable; that unpredictability is what defines it as such. Without this characteristic, it merely constitutes routine investment, which, while beneficial, lacks the transformative potential discussed extensively in Bourgeois Dignity. (p. 360)
Conclusion: A Revolutionary Shift in Ideas
In this chapter, McCloskey lays the foundation for her assertion that the ideological shift that engendered "innovative betterment" was nothing short of revolutionary. No central planners orchestrated this change, nor did anyone deliberately aim for unprecedented global economic growth. Rather, it was the freedom of individuals to pursue their ideas that ultimately resulted in such growth.
Several factors contributed to these new ideas, including shifts in religion, politics, and rhetoric, all influenced by technological advancements like the printing press, which facilitated the dissemination of ideas. McCloskey will further investigate these elements in the subsequent chapters.
Reference: McCloskey, Deirdre Nansen, 2016. "The Causes were Local, Temporary and Unpredictable," Chapter 38 of Bourgeois Equality, The University of Chicago Press.
Chapter 2: The Role of Innovation in Economic Growth
This video titled "Game Theory Explains Why No Deal is Inevitable - Brexit Explained" provides insights into how unpredictable decision-making impacts economic outcomes.
The second video, "From Impossible To Inevitable by Aaron Ross & Jason Lemkin: A Free Book Summary by Readitfor.me," summarizes key ideas about the transformative power of innovative thinking in business.