Section 1.1: The Impending Employment Challenge

Since the rise of Generative AI into the mainstream, we’ve witnessed astonishing advancements in this technology. AI assistants have become ubiquitous across various sectors: software development, marketing, content creation, business strategy, customer management, and sales. New tools emerge daily, fundamentally transforming how we work.

Yet, I argue that we are merely at the beginning of this journey. These tools are rapidly evolving from merely enhancing productivity to potentially replacing human workers entirely. This transition is unfolding across nearly all industries, making it increasingly challenging to identify professions that won't soon face disruption.

What will happen when millions find themselves unemployed because AI performs our tasks more efficiently? This scenario is unprecedented in human history. Consider the most transformative inventions of the past; they typically experienced either prolonged adoption phases (like the printing press or automobile) or only displaced a small segment of the workforce (such as the Internet or mobile technology). No technology has ever emerged that combines rapid adoption with the capacity to replace a vast array of professional roles.

Evidence of this shift is apparent in the news daily: Devin, an AI designed to create software from start to finish, has emerged. Its current capabilities may vary, but like all AI, it will improve over time. Additionally, Figure and OpenAI are developing a robot that can manipulate real-world objects with dexterity, multitask, and articulate its reasoning. OpenAI's SORA, which is set to launch this summer, enables users to generate minute-long videos from prompts, paving the way for anyone to create extensive films from a series of scenes.

These examples illustrate the extensive reach of AI into knowledge work, creative tasks, and physical activities. Considering that AI only burst onto the scene 18 months ago, the pace at which this technology is evolving is unprecedented.

Recently, Elon Musk made a striking prediction:

Regardless of whether his timeline is accurate or not, the trajectory is unmistakable. In the near future, AI will likely outperform humans in many, if not most, occupations. The competition is on the horizon, and in the medium term, we are all at risk of being replaced.

Take the example of an AI software developer like Devin. Devin can operate around the clock, every day of the year (with only occasional maintenance). This equates to four times the working hours of a human software developer. Furthermore, AI does not take sick leave or vacations. If it also produces higher-quality code more rapidly, what role remains for human developers?

This trend is pervasive across all sectors.

While it may not seem so, I am actually supportive of AI. I view this technology as a catalyst for monumental advancements across numerous fields. However, our progress is outpacing our capacity to comprehend its implications, much less prepare for them. What will happen to the economy when vast numbers of jobs vanish? How will we manage the reskilling of millions when it remains unclear which jobs will endure and which will fade away?

These are crucial questions, yet I see insufficient discourse around them. Addressing these issues is essential; otherwise, we risk facing a catastrophic outcome—not due to malevolent machines taking over, but because we permitted our economy to falter by entrusting AI companies with our future, naively hoping that goodwill would triumph over avarice.

And hope alone is not a strategy.